Clippers' Comeback

Went to the Ranger game last night.  Good times.  Except, I put a little money on the Rangers and they lost.  In fact, I did poorly overall yesterday, winning only my Laker bet (I was on the Flyers, too, but parlayed them with Nashville).

Except, wait a minute.  I wake up this morning to find out I should have double checked that Clipper/Grizzly score when I got home (it was 82-55 Memphis last I checked).  Apparently, the LAC went on a 26-1 run to pull ahead and then held off Memphis for the win.  Wow.  That evened things up for the day for me and helps long-term as I'm on the LAC for the upset in the series.

I'm not a surprise guy, but if I'm going to be surprised, I prefer good ones.  This qualifies.

I'm not betting anything today.  I'm focusing all my energy on a Mavs win.  Hopefully, that one will end in my favor as well.

NBA Odds

NBA Futures (and any futures for that matter) are dumb.  Whatever event you're betting on would have to be played between 3 and 46 times in order for the odds to be right (0 EV given betting on all teams).  Basically, I'm saying the vig is ridiculous.  Add in that in most cases you're giving up your ability to use your bankroll and/or giving the house an interest free loan, and my advice is to avoid them.

But, why does Fatty McGee take the stairs?  "They're fun!"

First, let's trim the fat.  There are six teams that I think have a "realistic" chance of winning it all on this day.  The Bulls, Celtics, Heat, Spurs, Thunder, and Lakers can make a case.  Yes, all teams are flawed, and all teams can overcome those flaws.  It's hard for me to eliminate the  Knicks, Griz, Clips, Jazz, and even the Mavs.  And, if you really believe one of those teams has a chance, you'll get better odds (closer to true odds).

It's almost impossible to run the chances without a program to calculate everything.  But, I've approximated it to the best of my abilities.  For the six teams above, I need BETTER than 2/1 on the Heat, 3/1 on the Thunder, 4/1 on the Bulls, 7/1 on the Spurs, 8/1 on the Lakers, and 12/1 on the Celtics.  And, of course, when I look up the odds, I'm only getting a better price on Boston and LA.  I'm also getting better than I expect on the Magic, 76ers, Hawks, Jazz, Mavs, Clips, and Griz.  Which shows me that I'm overestimating the chances of the dogs.  Makes sense.  The favorites are ridiculously bad prices, which also makes sense.   Ok, recalculate.  ARGH.  I give up.  Just don't bet futures.

It's funny that this advice is so clear, because one year ago yesterday (schedule-wise, not on the calendar since it was Black Friday).  I made my biggest bet ever.  I flew out to Vegas for less than 24 hours to make it.  The closest I've ever gotten to baller status.  I knew that even at the short odds they were giving me, the Lakers were a ridiculously good bet to win it all.  I still think so, for all the reasons that the Mavs won it all.  Unfortunately, I didn't know that Kobe was being a bigger bitch than even and ruining PJ's last run with his bitchmate Pau.  Yes, I'm bitter, although I did hedge with the Mavs and Thunder and the Mavs winning it all was by far my best sports moment ever.

Ok, for nostalgia's sake, I put a little on the Mavs, Lakers, and Celtics.  I'll ride one of the favorites heavy later and try to make some money on the individual games/series in the meantime.

Good luck.

NFL Draft R1

Watching free Game 7 hockey.  Go Panthers.

Random thoughts....

I like Andrew Luck.  Obvious 1st pick.  I don’t like the draft hats this year.  A few years ago, when Crabtree slipped to the 49ers, I bought the 49er draft hat.  I always buy the NCAA bball champ hat, so I started a new (albeit ridiculously unnecessary) tradition of getting a draft hat.  Year 2 was the Cowboys with Dez (maybe it’ll be best WR), then the Lions last year (nope, just best 1st pick - loved pairing Fairley with Suh).  I’ll let you know when I know about this year, but just know now that I’m disappointed with the 5950.

I like RG3 and Trent Richardson.  Nothing controversial yet.  Maybe giving up 3 picks to move up, but whatever.  A 4th, 5th, and 7th isn’t nothing, but I am always a sucker for getting your guy.

Great job by Vikes to pick up 3 picks and still get their guy.  Matt Kalil.  I would love to see coach’s tape.  There is definitely a market for coach’s tape, and yet the NFL has no interest in making it available.  It’s a shame.  

I really like Blackmon.  Given the right situation, I could see him being a Pro Bowler next year.  I’m not sure, unfortunately, if Jax is that situation.  Giving up a 4th hurts, but see above about my being a sucker.

Morris Claiborne to the Cowboys.  1st real surprise of the draft for me.  Not surprised they moved, but moved that much.  btw, I think this is great.  Honey Badger got the hype, but I have heard repeatedly that this guy was the best CB on that team.

Looking at the other side of the trade, how about the Rams?  Blackmon goes off the board, so they find someone to pay and move back.  They pick up the 45th pick and could still get the 2nd best WR in the draft (Michael Floyd).  They gotta sweat for a bit, but could work out nicely.  Of course, they could be targeting someone else entirely.  To recap, the Rams have turned the 2nd pick into the 14th, 2 additional twos this year and an additional 1 next year.  Have to love the ability to build there.

I don’t like taking a safety at 7, unless it’s Ed Reed.  Barron is not Ed Reed.  I will probably never know, but I think it’s a reasonable guess to think that TB traded back thinking they could get Claiborne.  Seems stupid in a 6 person draft that someone wouldn’t trade up to 6.  So, maybe it’s not reasonable or maybe TB is stupid.  Either way, I hope Barron works out because I like Schiano.  

Tannehill to Miami.  Seems like a nice kid, but I think Billick got it right a couple weeks ago when he talked about Tannehill being this year’s JaMarcus Russell.  NOT from a personality standpoint.  I’m sure Tannehill will work.  But, when teams draft because they need a position or hype instead of taking a player whose talents match up with a slot’s value, problems arise.  Huge upside.  But, he’s an Aggie, so I don’t think he’s going to make it in this league.  Boom.

I think you build with OL.  But, I also think a team needs at least one stud LB to be a great team.  From everything I’ve heard Kuechly is a STUD.  So, good for CAR getting him at 9.  The picks are flying.  We’re already through 9 picks (about 20 minutes ahead of my timetable).  Nice.  We might be done by 11.

Yep, Bills took about 3 minutes to get their card in for Gilmore.  Nice pace.  I really expected Riley Reiff there.  I heard today that he’s a better prospect than Bulaga, which surprised me.  He could slip now, because I think many planned for him to be gone.

Dontari Poe may end up being a dominant DL in the NFL, but I think if you as an NFL GM simply went by the rule that if college production were mentioned on weaknesses on a report, you wouldn’t select that guy then you’d be off to a good start.  That can’t all be one sentence.

By the way, I don’t get the trend to go to a 3-4 in the NFL.  

The trade for 7 from 5 for TB looks bad.  Yes, it’s an earlier 4th, but both the trade from 3 to 4 and 12 to 15 netted more.  And, if they lost their dude, it hurts worse.

PHI traded up from 15 to 12 to get Fletcher Cox.  Since they were rumored to possible to be trading up from 15 to 7 to get Fletcher Cox, this has to be a win.  btw, I think if I’m an owner, I think about hiring Andy Reid in some capacity when he’s done coaching.

Heather Graham is amazing.

I saw some mocks where ARI took Michael Floyd.  I saw that LFitz supposedly was lobbying for him.  I love him.  I love the situation.  I’m surprised (like Gruden, apparently) that ARI didn’t go D or OL (though I’d heard they loved Glenn, not Reiff).  It’ll now be even more interesting to see what STL does at 14.  

Ok, despite missing out on Floyd, I like STL’s deals.  They need a bunch.  Brockers is the pick. Ok.  Plug up the middle.

Mike Mayock knows football.  Almost every time he speaks, he makes sense to me.  And, he loves Chandler Jones, so I like Chandler Jones.

I said earlier that I’m a sucker for getting your guy.  But, really?  Take a guy you could get tomorrow at 15?  Bruce Irvin.  Dumb.  Ridiculously dumb.  

Here we go again.  Effort questions.  Motor.  Not good for a DE.  Quinton Coples.  And, bullshit on Gruden saying that Rex Ryan can push the right buttons.  He pushes a button, and if it works, great.  But, it doesn’t work for everyone and I don’t see it working for Coples.  

CIN should pick OL/DB or DB/OL.  Will they?  Ok, halfway there.  Dre Kirkpatrick.  I like it.  I like it a lot.  Will Zimmer stay in CIN?  Because I think it’s a good fit if so.  OL at 21?

I know Gruden likes everyone.  I have complained about how Gruden likes everyone.  But, I’m still sold on Melvin Ingram.  Maybe because I want Rivers and Turner to have a good D so they can contend.  

I like players from Boise State.  If I’m a GM, yes, I’m looking for college production.  Part of that is motor/work.  But, good coaching obviously helps.  Playing for Art Briles is going to mean you are in a better position to produce than if you play for Tuberville.  ps Guns up!

Kendall Wright to TEN.  Meh.  Could be good.  Could be not good.  Definitive meh.

The Chandler Jones watch didn’t take long.  NEP trade up and get him.  Good for them.  They gave up a 3rd, but if Jones is what Mayock says he is, no problem there, obv.  Will have to wait 6 more to see if CIN goes OL with 2nd pick.

As evidenced by my post the other day, I’m cool on Weeden.  I’m fcold on him to CLE.  Worst possible pick by CLE.  Colt McCoy deserves another chance, unless you can get a clear cut top tier dude.  Weeden is NOT a clear cut top tier dude.  Tell me right now who starts next year.  You can’t.  That’s dumb.  Sidenote:  Colt is three years younger.

Now, Riley Reiff comes off the board.  Great value, obviously.  He is NOT a LT, but can be a good RT or really good G.

Pace still flying.  PIT gets DeCastro.  Another great value.  Prolly my favorite OL in the draft.  And, I love that he’s going to a team that isn’t going to make him a C.  Will be a Pro Bowl G.  Exaggerate much?

Wow. NE trades up again.  Get Dont’a Hightower.  I love it.  Jones and Hightower.  Man, I’m turning into Gruden, loving everyone.  Or hating.  Or meh.  Fun.  I love the draft.  And, ps, I love my wife.  Pats give up a 3rd and 4th to move from 27 to 21 and 31 to 25.  No problem.  btw, they picked up Brandon Lloyd, Anthony Gonzalez, and Donte’ Stallworth in Free Agency (and Robert Gallery).

Speaking of FA, there are still some good players out there.  Seems like more than usual.  That would make a good post.  I probably won’t get around to doing it justice, but I’ll add it to the list.

Awesome 1st round for CIN.  OL and DB.  Value AND needs.  That’s how you do.

Ridiculously fast.  At 6:30, I thought closer to 11 than 12.  But, now, we may sneak in before 10.  Wow.  

Vikes overpaid to get back up into 1st.  To get Harrison Smith, who isn’t all that.  I like him, but wouldn’t defend this without loving him.  From the conversation, it sounds like “need” popping up again.

A.J. Jenkins.  I woulda preferred Randle.  I probably woulda preferred Hill.  And Jeffery.  In my tweet, I mentioned that you gotta trust Harbaugh.  But, I change my mind.  I am not a big fan of Baalke, and don’t see any reason to trust Harbaugh.  One (1) catch by a WR in the NFC Championship.  

DEN trading back.  I like it.  Let other teams fall in love.  TB takes Martin from Boise.  I just said I like Boise players, and Martin is an example of that.  He “does it all.”  He’s not as explosive as some others, but is “complete.”  I don’t like TB’s draft, which means Barron and Martin are gonna run the world.  Price is only switching 4ths, so not a huge deal.

The Giants make their pick at 10:04 on my clock.  Pretty amazing.  They take David Wilson, who I like more than Martin.  I don’t understand why LaMichael James is not rated higher.  We’ll see tomorrow.  Only 3 hours.  Cya.

Foul Ball.

Yes, it's different when it's flipped into the stands than if it's a foul ball.  But, two things:
1. If I ever catch a foul ball, I'm keeping it.
2. I don't think these people were the evil, rubbing it in the kid's face people they were made out to be.

Game 7 and random thoughts.

I agree that there's nothing like an NHL Game 7. Well, over the next couple of nights, we get three of them. Not to mention the Mavs' regular season finale and the NFL Draft. Good times.

The Ovechkins play at the Bruins tomorrow night. I'll take Boston. obv.
Ottawa plays at the Rangers and the Devils play at Florida. I'll take both home teams there, too.

I think the current heat over Barron helps the Cowboys. Yes, if he's Ed Reed, you take him there. But, I remember Ed Reed from the U. I don't remember Barron from watching 'Bama the last couple of years.

With the Mavs likely to have to play either OKC then LAL or LAL then OKC (no, I don't think Denver can upset either), I'm not sure which I'd prefer. I just hope James Harden makes a full recovery (in July) and Pau and Kobe get in a big chic fight soon.

I really wish the Stars were contenders again. I'm surprised PHX isn't playing better right now (early 3Q). I hope they come back. Yes, Utah could probably push SAS more, but I just think it'd be cool to see such a horrible team in the playoffs.

I will not make any NBA futures bets next week. I will not make any NBA futures bets next week. I will not make any NBA futures bets next week. Ok. I might.

I don't understand the Browns NOT taking Trent Richardson at 4. They have to take Trent Richardson. And, btw, they really should give Colt McCoy another year without bringing in his replacement yet.

I hope BOTH Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd are great NFL WR. Michael Floyd actually impressed me more two years ago than he did last year, but given good coaching and with drive, he'll be great. I can't really see Blackmon failing, either, but I keep hearing people doubt both.

I'm tired of the "Yu" jokes. He's doing awesome, btw. While we're on the Rangers, I'll mention that I thought it was cool that Pudge threw the first "pitch" last night from home to 2nd. I liked Tony Pena, really liked Benito Santiago, but loved Pudge back in the day.

For stupidity's sake, I'll mention that I have have positive vibes on Stephen Hill and Chandler Jones.

Ok, later.

It's Draft Week

I mentioned that I wouldn't pick up Brandon Weeden where he's available this week. To be honest, I really like Andrew Luck. I waver on RG3, but can't argue with him being picked #2. The next QB I'd consider (again, where he's rated) is Russell Wilson. I think he'll be good if given a chance. The other QB that intrigues me is Chandler Harnish.

I'd love to be able to write a full mock and/or analyze the draft more completely. But, like most things, I'm just not going to make enough time. We'll see if I can put something together before Thursday. In any case, I'm excited. And, if nothing else, I'll be tweeting while I watch.

Klay Thompson and Brandon Weeden

I saw the Mavs beat the Warriors last night. I was impressed again by Klay Thompson. Which is weird. I saw him play a couple times at Wazzu without being impressed. He's passable but not great at defense. Same with his passing. His handle is probably below average. He's not tall (listed at 6'7"). But, jeez, he can play for me. Pretty shot, and can get it off so quickly. I don't remember noting such a quick release.

Normally, I don't even use that phrase for bball players. It's more of a QB thing.

Brandon Weeden has a pretty quick release. He is very accurate in the pocket. He's the kind of QB I would normally like. But, I don't. I think he's Tim Couch. I think he's going to fail. I would not draft him until about round 4.

This is what I do. I'm constantly in sports talk radio mode, grading players. It must be what millions of other sports fans do, too. Because I've always done it. Because fantasy sports couldn't be the megaindustry it is without us doing it. I'm saying we did it before fantasy sports and someone figured out a way to profit from us.

I even do it at high school games.

Why? Why do I feel the need to judge each player relative to every player in my mental rolodex? Why do I judge their performance against my mental projection of their ceiling based on my perceived understanding of their abilities?

I guess I just don't know. Fawesome, Jim. Ask a cool question and don't answer it well. I think that it's just part of me. That if you knew the answer, you'd understand why I love sports so much when it has no bearing on my 'real' life. I'm enthralled by the competition and conflict, whether that be team vs. team or man vs. himself.

I'm going to big concert tomorrow. I'm not that psyched. Yet I spend a couple hours a week watching recorded amateur singers on 'The Voice.' So, clearly this obsession with judgment bleeds past sports. And, again, I must not be alone, for reality TV as we now know it has gotten huge not just on voyeurism but on competition and analysis.

Wondering begets wondering.

Just know that you shouldn't pick up Weeden, even in your dynasty league.

Home game.

Played in the home game tourney series again. Cashed and am now 4/4 cashing this year and lead in points. Very lucky to survive KK>AA aipf early (sorry, Rob).

I feel like I played very well. Made some good bluffs, good laydowns, got value, etc. But, I really just wanted to talk about one hand.

Almost the first break. I'm sitting on around 30k at 200/400. I look down at J7cc. Easy fold a majority of the time, but a good spot. I make it 1200 EP. Two calls, sb jams for 6600. So, it's 5400 to win 10400 to me. I could fold, but if it's HU it's probably a call. I feel like I'm getting the right price against his range. So, for 20% of my stack in a good spot (knock a player out, gamble for big chiplead, image, etc.). The problem is I can't call and play an empty side with this hand. I think it through, and decide neither of the others can reasonably have calling hands against my jam after just calling my initial raise. I jam. He has AKo and wins.

Both he and another player at the table guffaw (repeatedly through break and after) at my gift. Nice guys, but I think wrong here. I fight my ego and don't correct them, but feel like in general they shouldn't really critique a play as bad just because they don't understand it. Yep, horrible play and horrible ego. I'll just keep working.

Title Contenders

I don't know who's going to win the NBA this year. I can see Memphis winning it. OKC. LAC. Miami should win it. CHI possible if DRose gets right. BOS looks possible, which seems crazy. SAS. LAL. I don't know, and I like it.

Killer Instinct

I remember when Van Exel said eff 'em. He was talking about the Kings, back in '03 (pretty sure, not fact checking). We beat them. The trio of Dirk, Nash, and Finley wasn't enough. They needed that eff 'em. We ended up losing to the Spurs in the conference finals (getting outscored like 39-13 in the 4Q of game 6, while Walt Williams's socks just couldn't get it done - loudest game I had been at in the AAC until Lakers last year).

2006 we didn't have it. Devin, Josh, Dirk lost to the Heat, who had it.

Last year, finally, we had it. Chandler, DeShawn, and even JJ. We weren't going to lose. Dirk proved the critics wrong. You can obviously win a title with Dirk as your best player.

But, I don't think you can do it with Dirk as your leader.

Tonight, the result of the game was never really in question. But, a great team runs SAC off the floor in the first quarter and kicks their asses as they run away. Not tonight.

2011 will carry me for a long time. Best sports time of my life. But, it's still frustrating seeing this. Things can change quickly, but I'm not holding my breath this year.

Too long (again).

I have to somehow make writing a habit. Just like eating right. Just like working out. Just like getting stuff done at work. Just like putting my due diligence in for basketball. Just like playing poker.

Somebody once said that excellence is a habit. I'm a believer. It's something I preach to my students. But, then I act hypocritically. I procrastinate and take shortcuts, knowing that I can get by with less than my best.

blahblahblah

This week, I'm busy. I've got a Rangers game tomorrow, a Mavs game on Wednesday, and am planning to hit up Lone Star Park on Opening Night on Thursday. So, here's an opportunity to put up instead of talking.

I will eat right the next five days.
I will get some sort of exercise each day the next five days.
I will make an entry here each of the next five days.
I will do my best at work the next five days.
I will read a few pages of poker content each day for the next five days.
I will enjoy my three outings.
It's gonna be a good week.
I will post an update here on Saturday before I go play poker.