NBA Odds

NBA Futures (and any futures for that matter) are dumb.  Whatever event you're betting on would have to be played between 3 and 46 times in order for the odds to be right (0 EV given betting on all teams).  Basically, I'm saying the vig is ridiculous.  Add in that in most cases you're giving up your ability to use your bankroll and/or giving the house an interest free loan, and my advice is to avoid them.

But, why does Fatty McGee take the stairs?  "They're fun!"

First, let's trim the fat.  There are six teams that I think have a "realistic" chance of winning it all on this day.  The Bulls, Celtics, Heat, Spurs, Thunder, and Lakers can make a case.  Yes, all teams are flawed, and all teams can overcome those flaws.  It's hard for me to eliminate the  Knicks, Griz, Clips, Jazz, and even the Mavs.  And, if you really believe one of those teams has a chance, you'll get better odds (closer to true odds).

It's almost impossible to run the chances without a program to calculate everything.  But, I've approximated it to the best of my abilities.  For the six teams above, I need BETTER than 2/1 on the Heat, 3/1 on the Thunder, 4/1 on the Bulls, 7/1 on the Spurs, 8/1 on the Lakers, and 12/1 on the Celtics.  And, of course, when I look up the odds, I'm only getting a better price on Boston and LA.  I'm also getting better than I expect on the Magic, 76ers, Hawks, Jazz, Mavs, Clips, and Griz.  Which shows me that I'm overestimating the chances of the dogs.  Makes sense.  The favorites are ridiculously bad prices, which also makes sense.   Ok, recalculate.  ARGH.  I give up.  Just don't bet futures.

It's funny that this advice is so clear, because one year ago yesterday (schedule-wise, not on the calendar since it was Black Friday).  I made my biggest bet ever.  I flew out to Vegas for less than 24 hours to make it.  The closest I've ever gotten to baller status.  I knew that even at the short odds they were giving me, the Lakers were a ridiculously good bet to win it all.  I still think so, for all the reasons that the Mavs won it all.  Unfortunately, I didn't know that Kobe was being a bigger bitch than even and ruining PJ's last run with his bitchmate Pau.  Yes, I'm bitter, although I did hedge with the Mavs and Thunder and the Mavs winning it all was by far my best sports moment ever.

Ok, for nostalgia's sake, I put a little on the Mavs, Lakers, and Celtics.  I'll ride one of the favorites heavy later and try to make some money on the individual games/series in the meantime.

Good luck.