New Year

I want to write more - always, but it's a time consuming prospect for me. We'll see how much content I can add in 2013. Happy New Year!

Awesometown.

The Mavs lost tonight.  I still love them.  I almost posted after the Warriors game last week.  We lost that one, too.  Then, we played an AWESOME game and beat the Knicks.  Then, a horrible one and got killed by the Lakers.  So it goes.  Anyways, I was going to write about Harrison Barnes, an Ames, Iowa kid.  Then, a few days later ----- dunk of the year.  Please watch.




Also, I have been an Old Spice guy since Swagger first came out, which is weird.  Anyways, this ad is cool, too. Ok, I took it out. But, just google Dikembe and Old Spice, and you'll find it.

Gold

I am watching "Gold Rush" on which a bunch of hopeful dudes dig for gold.  I like it.  I recommend it.

It's also made me think about investing in gold.

I also wonder how realistic it would be to back money with gold again.  I just kinda accepted that the gold standard ship had sailed, but maybe I'm wrong.

The Lakers are 0-3.  I don't think that means anything.  Seriously.  I guess people have to talk about it, but even if it's surprising, I don't think it's worthy of the front page.  It will be interesting to see as the year goes the mix of Dwight, Nash, Kobe, and Pau.  I wish I could be in that locker room.

Romo

Tony Homo.  Tony Nono.  Get rid of him.  Bench Romo.  Cut Romo.  I'm sick of it.

So, I posted my thoughts on facebook.  To my surprise, I got only favorable replies.  Very cool.

btw, here's what I said:

I'm tired of defending Romo, but I'm also tired of seeing people dog him. I know interceptions can be frustrating, but he is absolutely your best option at QB if you're a Cowboys fan. The OL is not good and has injuries. Our most explosive offensive player, Murray, is out. The WR are not helping as they should. Ok, you want to get rid of him, whatever. Propose a solution. Are you saying play Orton? Are you saying give up on this year and draft a QB? If so, who? Did you watch the Colts last year without Peyton (ps there's no Luck in this year's draft)? How about the dropoff from old man Favre to Sanchez? I'm not saying you can't be frustrated when he gives the ball to Briggs or JPP, but realize this team is going to be about 8-8 this year with him and would be about 3-13 without him.

Challenge

Yes, the Challenge is a sport.  I like it.

By the way, I hate that the Mavs and Delonte have had to part ways.  If you hear exactly what happened, I'd love to know.  That said, I'm kind of excited to see the Eddy Curry experiment.  While I really like today's article on thenbageek.com about the John Bryant Error, I think Curry has a chance (while CDR probably doesn't, and Ely makes little sense to me despite playing for Tark once upon a time).

I didn't watch the World Series last night.  I watched one AB tonight.  I don't care.

I don't understand why the NHL wants to become even more irrelevant than they already are.

I'm gonna write a book.  NaNoWriMo looks like it might be a good means to that end.  I'm just not sure I'm going to make time.  I'm headed to Boston for turkeys.  I'm working a couple extra jobs.  And, as always, school is kicking my butt.  And, I'm actually taking an online class as well.  And, I need to spend more time focusing on exercising.

It's been fun watching Notre Dame this year.  But, unfortunately, I think they're going to get beaten pretty badly this weekend in Norman.  The experts I trust are telling me OU will win a close one, but I don't see how the Irish score, and while the ND defense is for real they have not faced an offense like the Sooners' this year.  Plus, it's a big night game in Norman.  I think it's going to be like 42-0.

Texas Tech has also been fun, especially last week with 3OT over TCU.  I hope they represent themselves well in the little apple.

Romo is a great QB.  I'm tired of the complaints.  Yes, the Cowboys are an 8-8 type team.  DeMarco Murray can't stay healthy.  The OL has problems and injuries.  And, now the D is fighting attrition as well.  But, the numbers don't support any argument against Romo (and the eye test doesn't either, imo).

I'm excited about UNLV's chances this year.  SDSU looks legit as well.  I'm going to try to make it out for the game at the Mack, but we'll see.  I'm definitely going to make some college bball games around here this year.

Maybe some HS hoops as well?  We'll see.

JFC

I thought that last post (two months ago) would free me up to hop on here and write more, without concern.  Instead, it seemed to free me up to stop writing.

I don't understand why we say 2000 US troops have died in Afghanistan instead of 2000 US soldiers.  It's misleading and dehumanizing.

I had a discussion on facebook tonight that has me interested in solving the economy.  Watch out.  Unfortunately, a tertiary conclusion already reached is that I'll have to fix the political system to have any chance of implementing my economy fix.

I hate the Yankees.  As a Red Sox fan, I don't have a horse in this race.  I'd like the Cardinals to NOT win, since I thought they were ridiculous value at 15/1 before the WC round and I didn't get down on it.  I'd like the Tigers NOT to win, because despite my respect for some of the individuals there I don't like them as a team.  I'm definitely not cheering for the Giants.  The Nationals don't really exist in my old man mind.  I guess the Orioles, but I'll be fine as long as the Yankees don't win.

Heather and I drove by some big houses tonight.  Saw a story about some dude who lived on Strait Lane, and went to check it out.  The discussion turned to the inability to raise a normal kid in that kind of environment.  The conclusion being that it can't happen.  Got me to thinking about how living in a privileged environment warps people, and how if you view that from outside the US you could reach the same conclusion about all of us.  Yes, there are other countries with more money, but we're the ones driving the stupid Lambo and looking all smug about it.

Biden was smarmy tonight.

Another great article by Simmons today on Grantland.  James Harden.  Check it out.

I'm still enjoying my new part-time gig watching basketball (or at least the training I'm doing in getting ready for my new job).  I wish I had time to play more poker.  And, watch more basketball.  And, read and write more.  Teaching has me tired - again.  Stopping posts here obviously has more to do with that than anything else.

As a teacher, I think fixing our education system is undervalued.  As a former OL, I think linemen are undervalued.  Just because I'm biased doesn't mean I'm wrong.

Later, dawg.

Blog philosophy.

Writing a blog is a self-aggrandizing venture.  I enjoy writing, and the blog often makes me think/analyze things I may not have otherwise.  But, I have no real interest in the whole self promotion thing.  I think I have a better understanding of sports/poker than the majority of the people getting paid to talk about sports/poker.  I don't, however, think publishing my thoughts will lead to getting paid to do so.  I'm doing this blog for myself, then.

The blogs and twitter feeds that I go to add value to me.   As many have said, I don't really need to know when someone is going to the grocery store.  I want to know the numbers behind why you're projecting someone to fit in a new system well when others aren't seeing it.

These two points conflict, however.  If I'm writing this blog for me, I don't really need to care about what my potential readers may find valuable.

So, as of today, I'm going to stop worrying about waiting to post until I have an idea and/or the time to write thoughtfully.  The good news is that while this probably won't help me grow the blog, it would be almost impossible to shrink it.

Penn State

I haven't written much about it here.  In fact, I don't remember writing anything.  Mostly, because everyone else has said something.  Partly, too, because I don't care as much as maybe I should.

Today, however, the NCAA has spoken.  They've come down with severe penalties.  My first reaction is that they seem to be penalizing the wrong people, and maybe just for pr reasons.  But, once past that, I'm kinda glad about the sanctions.  It's obvious that in that community (like many), athletics and football specifically had become way too big of a deal.  So, even though Sandusky is rotting in a cell, JoePa is gone, and many others have left, I think it's good to de-emphasize the sport.

V

Played a quick few hours at the V after the last Mavs game (I'll post more Mavs soon).  Nothing worked except making a hand.  Surprise.  At least I made one for a small profit.

Wednesday

Only really did two things today.

1. Saw the Mavs again in the Summer League.  The ATL defense and John Jenkins's shooting were too much for our heroes.  Not to mention some questionable calls.  I sat behind the bench again, and enjoyed hearing the banter between Mathis/Shedd and the refs.  Jae Crowder had some big moments.  I feel like he needs to get in better shape, and then he'll be good.  I think Sarge will do well for the Texas Legends (the Mavs D-League team), and I hope he continues to get better.  Maybe I'll get a ticket for the Legends too.  There are some other players I like, but I don't think they make the NBA this year.

2. Trivia.  For the second week in a row, we didn't win.  It was a huge surprise.  But, it was fun.  I'll be leaving before next week's game, so my team will have to persevere without me going forward.

DJ and me.

Dominique Jones played well for the Mavs in the Summer League today.  But, I am not sure that means anything.  He looked better than he did two years ago out here, but the problem is if that play translates to the league.  I don't think it does.  We'll see.

I also don't know about me.  I had another bad poker session tonight.  I lost with QQ twice, JJ, AK twice, and a few other hands.  I won no big pots.  Somehow, I lost one buyin.  But, it added to the frustration.  I left when the following hand tilted me.  A new player sits down.  He buys in.  He folds a couple times, then calls a raise from the big blind.  He calls a c-bet on flop of 644.  They get it all-in on the turn, the raiser has 64 and the new guy has 66.  He played it fine.  I think the vast majority of players double up there.  But, fuck, how do these people make so many hands.  I feel like I have a good understanding of how to exploit players and recognize good spots that many players don't.  At the end of the day, however, I need to make hands once in a while and it feels like I'm not.  I don't know, maybe it's just a feeling, maybe it's just an excuse.  Whatever.  The trouble is that I've got one more week here and I'm going to spend the majority of that watching basketball.  So, there's a good chance of a losing summer and that sucks.

*Updated with comment below.

Saturday

Went to the Rio.  Played the 2pm Deepstack.  The WSOP is basically packed up.  I played amazing.  I ran well the first four levels, and then awful the last three to bust before the second break.  Annoyed, I went to make some money back at the touristy Bally's poker room.  That, however, didn't go well either.  I lost 60 bucks on a bluff, and then limped AJcc to see a AhJs3s flop.  I check, dude in LP bets 10, one call, I raise to 50, he instajams for 120, caller folds, I call.  He has the K high flush draw.  I don't really understand his play, but it doesn't matter.  He gets there.  I leave shortly thereafter to grab some dinner and take a break.  I then decided to call it a day.

Just another frustrating day of play.  I'll get 'em tomorrow.

First Day of Summer League

I saw most of all four games today.  I loved it.

I'm sure over the next 10 days I'll fall in love with the play of someone I don't know yet.  Today, however, was mostly a day of being impressed with the guys who are already secure in the league (vets and high picks).  The only exception was a big kid for the Rockets.  Motiejunas.  He's tall, but he's quick and coordinated also.  After one day I'm ready to proclaim him ready for the league.

MKG was fun to watch, too.  I hope the Bobcats are better this year.

I'm not planning to go back tomorrow.  I'm going to work out and play some cards.  I'll be back for the full slate on Sunday (the first day with dueling games and the first Mavs appearance).

Fun.

USA Basketball/Mavs

I went to the USA Basketball game tonight against the Dominican Republic.

Random notes:
-Kevin Durant was impressive, obviously.  His range is ridiculous.
-Iguodala was named player of the game.  He was good on both ends, but KD was the man.
-Kevin Love disappointed me a bit.
-The player I most wanted to see was Anthony Davis.  He didn't get in until the fourth, but once he found his rhythm, you could see his greatness.  Quick, explosive, desire, etc.  I'm sure Blake Griffin is bummed, but I'm glad to see Davis.
-The DR had a 16 year old kid out there who looked good.  No wonder Calipari is coaching them.
-LV infrastructure sucks ass.
-The amount of Kobe/Laker fans out here makes me sick.
-I agree with Mark Cuban.  The wave is fucking dumb.

Ok, let's talk more about Cuban and the Mavs.  I love the move for Darren Collison and Dahntay Jones.  Collison is exactly what we need.  And, obviously, he's made more attractive in that his deal is expiring.  Gotta have that flexibility again next year.  Kaman signs for one year.  I like him.  It'll be interesting to see how much he plays.  He's not the player he was a few years ago.  Also, I don't know if the Mavs are planning on Wright getting backup C minutes.  Haywood was probably the second best C we've ever had, but I'm not that upset about getting rid of his contract through the amnesty clause.  Mahinmi seemed to be growing, but I'm ok giving him up for Collison.  This team may not contend for a title, but talk of the lottery is absurd.  We're going to win 50 games and, as we've seen, once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.  ps Letting Kidd and Terry go was good for me.  Yes, they both played integral roles in 2011, but they're both almost done.  If Collison, Jones, West, and maybe even Roddy and DoJo play aggressively, guard play will not be our problem.  I'm worried about Shawn Marion's and Dirk's mileage, too, but think they'll be ok this year.  Getting knocked out early this year may help us there, too.  I like this team.  I think we're going to add Brand next, and that will shore up some of my questions about interior defense.  I like Scola, but I don't think he fits what we're trying to do.  I'm sure we'll make a run at him if we miss on Brand.  I also saw something today about going after Calderon, which would be interesting.

Good Day.

I had fun playing poker tonight.  I played well.  I made some mistakes, as I always do, but I really feel good about how I played.  I won less than $100, so nothing great, but whatever.

That said, let me explain the biggest frustration us "good" players have.  Being on a table for hours on end with a neverending train of J3o while the dumbasses and drunks pay off the other donks for hundreds of dollars.  We know that if we ever hit a hand, we can stand up and do a happy dance while pushing our chips in, but that hand never comes.   Every table, almost without exception, has horrible players making horrible plays and you can't take advantage.  I'll probably have a new number one frustration tomorrow, but it seems like this is the story of the summer.

thejimshow

I miss doing a podcast with my cohost, Jeff aka BigSlick.

Red Rock

I figured out today why my heater hasn't happened yet.  I rectified the situation by heading out to Red Rock for a hike.  It felt good.  I love that place.  And, I made sure to get some rungood through osmosis.  Pretty good workout for me, too.

Fun

I'm going to have some fun today.   There's a cheap deepstack at Binion's downtown.  Then, after I win that, I'm going to play some PLO at Venetian.  Good times.

6pm Deepstacks

I have played the 6pm Deepstack at the Rio the last two nights.  I feel like it's good value, in that it ends before the 2pm with a third of the players.  The 2pm "feels" like a crapshoot.  Of course, they both are, but you know what I'm saying.   I had tweeted some hands both nights with the intention of turning them into a belated "live" blog, but that task is a little daunting.  Feel free to ask me about any of the tweets, but I'm going to concentrate on one in particular.  I said "chickened out from right move."

In yesterday's tourney, I had been moved to a new table.  Utg (young, thoughtful, good player) opens for a raise (5100 at 1k/2k with about 40k back), MP goes all-in for 3500, LP calls the 5100 with about 50k back.  I'm in the sb.  I have about 30k.  I "should" jam any two cards here.  The vast majority of the time, I end up heads up with the shorty with no risk to my stack after winning the side pot.  I look down at 96o and talk myself out of it.  Ends up, utg would have had a more difficult than usual decision with JJ, and I would have won with a straight.

Berating Players.

My last hand of the tournament tonight, I lost with AK.  With a 500 ante and blinds of 2k/4k, utg limped.  This seemed fishy to me, but when I woke up with Big Slick in the cutoff, I'm going with it.  I jammed my 30k in, the button and blinds folded, and utg tanked.  I don't have any clue what he was thinking about (obviously nothing).  He only had about 36k himself.  He ends up calling with AT.  If he had jammed, the same result would have happened, but I wouldn't have been tempted to tell him what a moron he was.  Of course, I just said nice hand, and good luck everyone and steamed out the door.

I played with Kenna James last night.  He mentioned that Shaun Deeb "brutalized" him verbally last year when they got headsup in a tourney in New York.  I believe it.  Shaun Deeb strikes me as having a ridiculous understanding of poker theory.  I've been watching many of the wsop streams, and his commentary on Stud8 was amazing.  He also strikes me as fairly unaware of himself.  He sees things that seem obvious to him that may not be obvious to all of us.  Kenna is a great player, and played very well at my table.  I can't stress enough how much he impressed me last night.  But, he played a couple of hands sub-optimally, and I can imagine that if I notice, then Deeb would see many flaws.

It's kinda like Hellmuth.  And, kinda like me a couple weeks ago at South Point.  You see someone messing up this ridiculously beautiful game, and you want to stop them.  Even if rationally you know you shouldn't.

Random thoughts.

Maybe I'll put together a blog of tonight's tourney.  I min-cashed the 6pm Deepstack at the Rio.

I understand how MFFLs are frustrated, but I don't think they should be.  Let things play out.

It's amazing to me how much I enjoy poker, still.  I was kind of in a funk yesterday and today.  Then, I go play and presto.

Work sucks.

I miss my wife.

I'm currently watching Monday's episode of "The Glass House" on dvr.  I am not that into it.  I'm not really paying attention to any shows this summer.   I'm sure I'll watch "Big Brother" whenever it starts.

I haven't looked at the NBA Summer League rosters yet, but I'm looking forward to it.  Not to mention USA Basketball.

I didn't go to the gym today.

Doubts.

Another bad day at the tables.  Just one of those days where my opponents caught whatever they needed.  It's tough not to let it get to me mentally, even though I rationally know I'm playing better than my opponents.  I'm going to get some stuff done tomorrow, watch the One Drop tourney, and probably wait until Wednesday to play again.

Working out.

I worked out a few days last week, but had gone a few days without doing so.  It felt good to get back in the gym today.  My goal is to be up there at least once each day this week.  I'm putting it out there to hold myself accountable.

Folding Quads

Somebody in the One Drop ($1 Million buyin) folded quad eights on the river.

Story here:  http://www.wsop.com/news/2012/Jul/3917/WOULD-YOU-CALL-A-34-MILLION-RAISE-BY-THIS-MAN.html

Interesting.

I watched most of yesterday while I recovered from having a little too much fun Saturday night.  Back to the gym and poker tables today.

Womens' Event WSOP

A quick note to mention Victoria Coren's great blog:

http://www.victoriacoren.com/main/blog/archive/pick_on_someone_your_own_size

I really like the idea of poker being friendly and open to new players.  I think the Womens' Event is an amazing example of that.  Every year, I get a little jealous that I can't play it.  Or, won't, I guess.

I tell my students that if they are doing something where if everyone were doing it, things wouldn't work - then they're being rude.  So, this excerpt stood out to me.

"Do you understand this, Brandon Uhl? Do you understand what happens, if everybody thinks like you do? Or did it never cross your mind?"
I think that sums up why guys shouldn't take advantage of this loophole any longer.  Let the women play.  And, maybe emulate the positive aspects of their game in yours.

Tommy's Last Day in Vegas

Since I had decided to take today off from poker, and it was Tom's last day in town, I figured I would just follow him around.

We got a late start and then headed to the Rio.  He was going to play one last sng.  So, I jumped in one.  $125 buyin (with a 4 way $60 last longer).  I did not play forever.  Like the first 40 hands.  Then, with 725 left it folds to the old guy who mentioned the little player fans they used to have at Binion's to avoid smoke.  Ok, he's been playing for awhile and knows what he's doing (and it probably too tight).  He raises.  The foreign guy next to me who took the majority of my chips in my sng yesterday jams.  He's tight.  I look down to see AQo.  Wow.  But, after a very short tank I muck.  Foreign guy has a very limited range there and seems very strong.  Sure enough, old doctor calls with 77 and loses to KK (and yes, an Ace came and I would have tripled up).  By the time it's three handed, I finally steal from the sb a couple times and get one walk.  The foreign guy and I have between 1k and 2k and the other guy (who knows sng strategy and organized the last longer) has the rest, around 6-7k.  I'm being very patient.  I get it in with A4 v. A8 once and manage a chop.  I chip up a little and so does foreign guy.  He shoves from the small blind and I call with 88.  It holds up against his KQo, and he's left with 100.  He's all in on the button in the next hand, I call the bb and we check it down.  I win both pots with J5o that paired the J.  I now have 5100 and last longer guy has 4900.  We immediately agree to chop everything 50/50.  So, I make 680 (+495).  Nice.  Takes the sting off yesterday.  A couple of sidenotes.  One, that 88 v. KQ ends up to basically be a coinflip for $680.  Glad I won.  And, two, patience pays off in these things.  I know it's correct to play very loose late, especially with a tight image from early, but there's still room for risk aversion.

We leave the Rio and head to Venetian.   We check our comps and go to the Grand Lux.  Great meal and then onto the sportsbook to sweat our Rangers RL bet.  They have to win by 2.  Down 2-0 for much of the game, they leave two on in the bottom of the 7th.  Then, they load the bases again in the bottom of the 8th.  Cruz comes to the plate.  We've seen him do it before.  Can he jack a slam?  No, but he works a walk, and now it's 2-1 with the bases still loaded.  Gentry hits one deep that the LF seems to misplay.  It turns into a base-clearing triple, and we're good.  4-2.  Tom's yelling and we're high fiving.  Good times.  Sheppers (who?) comes in to work the 9th.  He looks shaky but gets two outs.  Then, of course, he gives up a meaningless home run that was out by about a foot and the Rangers win 4-3.  F bombs ensue.  Tom really does run bad.  I blame him.  The good news is that the Reds game went under, so I still made money for the day.

We stop back by the house to chill then head out to the club.  Good times.   Hit up Roberto's on the way home and now it is time for some zzzzzzzz.

I'm planning to go to the PPA Town Hall tomorrow, but I'm not fully committed to it.  Would also like to see "Ted" and have talked about going to see Marcy Playground at Mandalay.

Later.

I lost a G today.

12 hours ago, I was profitable for the trip.  Now, I've built myself a decent hole.  Tough day.

I got up and went to see "Moonrise Kingdom" at the Orleans.  Decent movie.  Then, it was on to the Rio.  I register late for the 2pm Deepstack.  My table forms and we begin play just after the beginning of Level 2.  I don't play many hands until I 4bet AQo from the sb and then jam a rag flop.  I get called by TT, and am really short.  I'm considering whether or not to re-enter and trying to find a place to shove.  I double with T9o v. AQ, then shove over a raise and don't get called, and now I'm up a little over 7k.  I get moved to another table.  Immediate tilt when I see my least favorite Vegas local at the new table.  But, I come in and he's got 97 aipf against AA.  Cool.  Then, he flops a straight.  Fuck.  A few hands later, right before the break, I shove AQo over a utg limp, he calls with 99 and IGHN.  I decide not to re-enter.  Instead, I play a little sng.  $125.  I hit a couple hands, and have 2600 at 150/300 5 handed.  I open shove ATs utg, the bb wakes up with TT, and I'm out a couple hands later.  Ok, time to cool off.  I go grab a burger and head into the 50k FT and watch Michael Mizrachi finish it off.

I'm feeling good, so I decide to take a shot at 2/5.  I'll skip the next 4 hours.  In for 600, as low as 340, now sitting on a little over 700.  Button straddle, sb folds, I call in the bb with A8ss.  No raise, and we see the flop four ways.  J75ss.  I bet 20, fold, fold, button makes it 60.  I can reraise here, but I decide to call.  My plan for the turn is to check/ship all straight cards and Aces, check/click back any spade, and check/call anything else.  I check dark, 6h comes, he bets 120, I say "all-in" and he snap calls.  River 8c.  He flips over 84o.  Perfect turn card.

Criticism welcome on any of the above mentioned hands.

I'm kinda ok, but will probably take tomorrow off to regroup and figure out my plan for the next couple of weeks.

HORSE tourney turns into all-nighter.

I worked out and swam and felt good going to play poker about 15 hours ago.  I went to the MGM, as I had heard about their Tuesday night HORSE tourney.

I played cash first.  I did well, abusing weaktight play.  Always fun.

My last hand, however, I think I played badly.  I had AhJc.  1 limp in front of me, I limp, aggro kid next me makes it 12, good lady calls behind him, limper calls, I call.  We see a flop of 568hhh.  I check, kid bets 15, lady calls, I call.  Turn is the Jd.  I check, aggro bets 30, lady raises to 90.  My hand is obviously totally underrepresented, but it also has something else working for it.  Yes, I have the nut flush draw.  But, that also obviously means this lady doesn't have the nut flush.   She had 220 back.  I think maybe I'm supposed to jam (/get there?).   Hmmmm.

I then play the HORSE tourney like a total donk.  I know mixed games better than my opponents, but it's not like anyone at the table was clueless.   I made many small mistakes, and one big one (as I tweeted, my low got there, and I called down for half...but, we were playing stud).  The structure seemed fast, but obviously they don't want to be there all night.  I'll probably go back.  It was fun.

I then grab some dindin and sit down at 1/2 at the V.  Ridiculously unfriendly/no action table.  More and more I'm finding that part of my role this summer is to be talkative and get games out of the muck.  I'd love to sit back and just analyze everyone and play well, but if everyone is doing that it doesn't work.  I think all serious poker players need to promote the game as much as possible.  Sometimes that means being social.

I decide the Mirage is usually good for a drunk or two and head on over.  No drunks at my table, but pretty good action, and I runz good.

I cashed out up a decent amount but it should have been more.  Ubertilt kid straddles, and I'm just going to make a move this hand.  Pool dude calls the straddle, and I make a production $20 bet with 83o.   Dorky nitburger calls to my immediate left and chases all the others out.  Flop 985r.  I check/call $25 'cause "hey."  Turns my good card - a 3.  I check/call 50.   Alarms were going off on the flop.  I called this guy nitburger for a reason.  But, I manually bypass the alarms.  'Cause, "hey."  River J.  I've got 3rd and bottom pair against nitburger.  I check.  He goes all in for 135.  Easy fold, right?  No, I tank call, 'cause "hey."   I'm a dumby.

Anyways, it was a good night.  I got back a couple of hours ago and need to get some beauty sleep so I can watch a little soccer tomorrow, and still have time for the gym and a full session.

Euro

At one point, crazy told me Germany had no chance against Italy in the Euro semis.  I told crazy he was crazy.  He offered to bet, even odds, no juice, for however much I wanted.  If I knew the guy, I would have bet a lot.  But, what do you do in that situation?  If you lose, you have to go find the guy and pay him.  If you win, you have to go find the guy and collect.  The trust factor killed my action.

What's up with the what's up? That's what's up.

I played 1/2 at the Venetian and Caesar's yesterday.  Precious few hands to speak of.  In about 4 hours at the Venetian, I never felt the need to add on to my original short stack.  I had one premium starting hand in that time, so mostly I was folding.  The one premium, I limped for the straddle in the new utg with KK.  Good player to my left makes it 20.   Folds around to me, I'm all-in.  He calls.  I flop and turn Kings, and my quads hold up.  He tells me he had JJ, which makes sense.  That pot puts me up to me high for the session - a whopping $156.  I eventually leave up $17.

During the session, the reason why I didn't feel the need to add-on is because there wasn't any big stacks giving away money.  I tried to loosen up the action by talking and then getting a show one card when not called agreement.  I had different deals with the players to my right and left about if it's folded to us in the blinds.  I asked if one guy's hair was real.  Alas, still not huge mistakes being made, so we went to dinner.

At this point, I was happy to go upstairs and have some Panda, but that wasn't good enough for Tom.  So, I trick him into paying the extra on my meal at Noodle Asia.  I should add that money to my poker winnings.   Hi-yaa.

We head to Caesar's.  Sidenote:  Don't walk through the Forum Shops.  I proceed to get in one of the best, juiciest, gambliest 1/2 games EVAH.  People are calling 40 on the river with K high, talking about how hard it is to fold top pair shitty kicker for an all-in from a nit, and bluffing for stacks regularly.  Nice.  I proceed to win 5 hands in 4 hours.  I saw a neverending string of 93o, J4o, J6o, T4o, etc.

At one point, a kid sits down on my right for a little less than 300.  He proceeds to get it in pre against the crazy at the table, with AQ.  He hits a Q, and the other guy only shows an A (so I think he got it in with AT or worse, since he would have shown AK and there were two jacks on the board).  A little while later, the kid bets pre, flop, and turn for obvious value against crazy with a final board of 86j63, with a flopped club flush draw getting there on the river.  Sure enough, despite the board pairing on the turn, crazy overbets enough to put the kid all-in on the river, and the kid tank folds.  Crazy shows T9o and explains how to play to the kid.  About an orbit later, kid raises to 10 in EP and crazy and one other  idiot with over 1k in front of him both call.  Flop J52r.  Checks around.  K on the turn.  Ch/ch/20.  Crazy then check/raises to 80.   Kid makes it 150, crazy snap shoves, and kid snap calls with JJ to double up (to 760).  A couple of hands later, kid makes it 10 pre, crazy raises to 45, idiot calls, kid reraises to 210, crazy calls, idiot folds.  Flop 984r.  Kid jams, crazy thinks for a second and calls.  Kid shows QQ, turn pairs the 9, river a blank.   Crazy mucks, meaning he played a 1300 pot with relative shit.  Yes, he lost 1k in two hands at 1/2.  Without much.  It was a good game.  And, he wasn't the only spot.  And, yes I only won 5 hands in 4 hours.  Frustrating, but I was happy to leave up 240.

There are more hands that I could use to relay the craziness, but they don't offer much that interesting.   One guy flopped a boat after limping aces, got the turn and river to double pair the board so he could get paid.  Wow.

I'll tell you one hand that makes me look good.  I have Tc8d in the bb.  It limps around and we see a flop of Qd9d3s.  A young, dour foreigner bets 10 after a check by me and crazy, folds to me, I call, crazy calls.  Turn Td.  Checks around.  River As.  I check, crazy bets 55, dour folds, and I tank hero-call and am good.  Easy game.

Ok, I didn't play the GN HORSE yesterday.  I think MGM has a Tuesday night HORSE, so I am planning to play that.  Also, I didn't work out Sunday, but I did get to the gym yesterday.  So, today it's work out, play cash, play MGM HORSE.  Go, Jim!

Friday/Saturday

I write for me, obviously.  I know not many people read this.  I think that truth probably frees me up a bit, but I think I'd write better if I had the pressure of readers.

Anyways, in my last post I mentioned that I expected to play quite a bit of poker the last two days.  And, that happened.  Results were mixed, but I don't have as much in the bankroll today as I did Thursday night, so that's never good.

Session 1 - TARGET.  There are many idiots and douchebags who play poker.  In my experience, however, the vast majority of people who are really good at the game are also great people.  Add to that  my enjoyment of poker theory in addition to poker practice and you can see why I try to make time for the wpdg and BARGE groups.  An offshoot of BARGE is TARGET, an annual satellite between us dorks into a WSOP event.  I got AA once, stole the blinds, and had NO other hands to speak of.  After the first break, I had 1400 of my original 2k stack in the SB.  It folded to me, and I decided to ship Q4+.  I shipped, BB called, and there were two Q on the flop, so I wish I had the bottom of my range instead of the AJo I had which didn't improve against the BB 99.  The guy who busted me ended up being one of the three winners, so good on him.  We have 3 horses in various events, and we all get a piece, so hopefully one of them makes a good run.

Session 2 - I had planned on being in the satellite longer and/or being involved in some craps shenanigans which were cancelled, so I had some free time to kill before the reindeer dealer's choice game was to start with the same group Friday night.  After hitting up my go-to (Panda), I headed downtown.  A couple hours of NL at the Nugget did my confidence and bankroll some good.  No hands worth mentioning, but I made some moves and won a little.

Session 3 - Reindeer games.  I enjoy games other than NL against friends, and especially games I have to try to figure out, so this was perfect.  We played some Razzdugi, some Murder, some Mississippi Stud'em, some Stud 9 or better bottoms up, and even invented a new game (crazy pine-omaha now re-named Hawaii 508).  I called boring ol' TD2-7 both times I got to choose, simply because I never get to play it.  I was able to play well and run really well, and cashed out up a couple of racks.

Session 4 - After a decent sleep, I got up and Dave, Tom, and I headed to the Rio for the daily deepstack.  For $235, you get to play a crapshoot with a chance to cash out $50k.  Pretty awesome.  I call it a crapshoot, but there is play in the first couple of hours.  I chipped up nicely and had a great table.  Unfortunately, in Level 6 I got involved in a huge pot with the best of it and lost.  My story is that had I won the hand, I would have been in great shape.  I guess we'll never know.

Session 5 - We hit up the South Point after dinner.  I played for 6 fucking hours and didn't get any hands.  I rode the roller coaster of emotion of missing hands, getting chops, idiots talking, playing great, being in the zone, etc.  and left after a last stand.  I was in EP and limped AJhh.  One more limp on the button, and then the BB makes it 35 with 63 behind.  Obviously AJhh is a pretty easy fold here, except, as I mentioned, I was in the zone.  I knew I was ahead, and racing at worst, and might even get a dumb fold.  So, I raised AI.  Other limper folds obv and BB tank calls.  He had KQo, but hit a Q.  Then, I did something I rarely do.  A little backstory first.  One guy at the table was especially on my nerves.  All night, he had been talking about other peoples' hands while making his decisions.  This is ok, even if not smart, headsup.  Multiway, however, it's not allowed (or at least not good manners).  The dealers, however, rarely run the game since that might hurt their tips.  So, I told the guy (in a friendly way) that what he was doing was bad etiquette.  He replied, "no, it's not" and looked at the dealer who confirmed that indeed he shouldn't talk about a hand until headsup.  He shut up for about 15 minutes, but then went back to it.  His inane scattershooting wasn't contained to this offense, but I won't spell it all out.  Well, when the hand mentioned above happened, my opponent and I didn't flip our hands on their backs.  When he showed after the board ran out, I mucked quietly (if maybe obviously frustrated).  He then goes on a rant to his neighbor about how dumb it is for players not to expose their hands.  He just doesn't get it haha.  I mean why is everyone so scared to expose their hand haha?  At this point, instead of calmly explaining why a player wouldn't show their hand when they aren't required to and maybe even explaining why it's bad etiquette to deride other players' actions and further expound on why he shouldn't share his reads in multiway pots, I decide to simply tell him to shut the fuck up.  After that, I left.  Time to find my boys.  I find them, and they are drunk.  Really drunk.  So, I tell them to enjoy the rest of the show and come find me at the blackjack tables when they're ready to go.  Well, they decide instead to come over and sweat me then get in the game themselves.  Hijinks ensue.  At least I recouped some of my losses and had some fun playing blackjack.

Today is a scheduled day off.  Laundry, working out, and maybe a movie.  Tomorrow, I win the GN HORSE tourney.

Later.

Let the Poker Summer Begin.

I drove all day Wednesday to get out here to Vegas.  I've actually only been here just under 24 hours now (2:30am Friday).  Today, I went and got a month membership at the gym, got groceries, slept, and watched some soccer.  Then, I watched Game 5 of the NBA Finals.  I dislike the Heat, as I think many of you know.  However, I'm glad it's over as it opens me up to fully concentrate on poker for the next couple of weeks.  That's what I'm here to do.

Tom's in town, too, so after basketball, we hit up the Venetian 1/2 game.  Not a good night for me.  Just  didn't have hands/spots and didn't create any.  I'm back at it tomorrow.  I've got a satellite with some poker friends and then some friendly mixed games with them.  Saturday, I'm planning to play the 2pm deepstack at the Rio.  I'll try to post some about both days.

Downtime.

I'm chillin' for a couple of days.  I feel ready for Vegas, but I've got a few things to handle around here first.  Of course, I'm doing those things slowly and/or finding reasons not to do them before I go.

But, I have to tell you that there is not much to do during the day.  All 4633 channels on TV suck during the day.  I've cleared out my DVR.  It's almost like I'm now forced to be productive.

Game 2 is tonight.  That should be fun.  I have nothing on this series or game, and am just watching for fun.  I ended up fast forwarding through much of Game 1, so we'll see if it keeps me into it tonight.

Anyone have ideas for things to do with old magazines?

I played in a home game with the author from hardboiledpoker last night.  Doing this blog again on a semi-regular basis really drives home how impressive his daily content is.  I recommend his work.

Klosterman hasn't written much for grantland recently.  I hope a new book is the reason.

Speaking of writing and books, I think I'm going to start including some book reviews here.

Any at-home business ideas?

Ok, back to the to-do list.  cya

Yep.

Hellmuth

Hellmuth won his 12th last night, and did so in my favorite game (razz).  I've posted my thoughts about him before, so won't do so at length again.  Obviously, he's a great player AND can be quite the jerk.

Meanwhile, as I type, the anti-Hellmuth is in the 5k LHE FT with five players left.  Andrew Prock is a rather humble genius.  The developer of PokerStove is widely unknown in the poker world.  He's a guy for whom I can cheer.

It's the difference, in my mind, between poker players and poker fans.

Frustration.

I know that cashing 5 of 6 tourneys in my little home game series that I play has to be better than expectation.  But another 2nd tonight has me feeling peeved instead of grateful.  It didn't help that I had a side bet to win the tourney again.  I'm probably too emotional about the result right now to write rationally about it, so I won't.

Maybe I'll just vent  about the Heat.  Nah, I'm too pissed about that too.

Ok, maybe I'll just go jump in the pool.

New Home Game

Drove out to BFE last night.  I had been getting e-mails about this game for awhile, but never made it up there.  If I don't have other plans on Fridays, I usually come home and crash.  But, it was worth it.  I didn't have much in the way of cards, but still managed to more than double up.  The biggest hand was 78o on a flop of Q65, turn 3, river 9 (nuts) where I c/c/c/shoved.  Easy game.

My favorite hand of the night, however, was one I didn't play.  It was about 3am.  We're down to four players on our table.  I had been encouraging straddles, and sure enough, utg straddled to 4.  This guy was a solid player.  There were some things in his game that could be taken advantage of, but I hadn't gotten to them and he had chipped up steadily all night.  The button raised to 20.  She was an attractive Asian, I'm guessing late 20s/early 30s.  She was also solid.  And, also opinionated despite not really understanding some things about the game.  Later someone told me that she had introduced herself as a poker pro.  I wasn't surprised by that bit of information, but I'd be surprised if it turned out to be true.  I had made fun of her a bit for the lack of gamble she displayed, but she had trouble understanding.  Ok, enough scattershot descriptions.  I fold, Rob folds his bb, and the straddle reraises to 45.  She calls.  Flop 982r.  He bets 45 again, and she raises to 155.  He agonizes and calls.  Turn 9.  Check, she instajams, and he calls.  He has a horribly pained look on his face and asks if she has it.  She purses her lips, leaves her cards facedown and deals an Ace on the River.  Then, she proudly flips AT, a bluff that somehow got there.  He shows his KK.  She then proceeds to talk about how this was her first 'gamble' of the night.  That's not a gamble.  That's a blowup/spew that somehow caught a miracle.  But, instead of admitting luck and politely racking her new huge stack (probably close to 800), she argues with the guy who just lost when she caught her 7%.  As I'm walking out of the bathroom, the host is having to tell them to "stop, when I say stop, I mean stop it, both of you."  Apparently, her husband had defended her honor a bit as well.  

Here's the deal.  Maybe she planned it all preflop.  I'm gonna call this extra 25 and pretend I've flopped  a set and outplay this guy.  If so, it almost worked.  My opinion, however, is that she should have folded to the 3bet pre and moved on to the next hand.  My perception is that she just got stubborn when she had been challenged and tried to give away her stack.  When that happens, real poker players make a sympathetic face and say "wow, I can't believe how lucky I was."

We then consolidated and played for a bit more with a gambly table.  I treaded water, and we left at about 4.  I'll be going back.

Return.

I made a quick jaunt up to Choctaw today.  Made $1.  Gave it to the cashier.  But, it felt good.  I'm sure I could have made more, and I know I could have lost more.  I feel like I played really well.  I'm going to play in a couple home games over the next couple of days.  I hope plan to make some money.

I'm also obviously making a return to the blog.  The end of the school year was tough.

OKC has everything they need to win the championship.  They look really good.  I hope the Celtics beat the Heat on Saturday, but it doesn't look too good after tonight.  I think they'll play much better Saturday, but it may not matter.  The Finals will be fun to watch.

I haven't been watching hockey or baseball, which is obviously weird for me.  I've watched a good amount of the French Open and plan to watch some of the Euro 2012.  I'm excited for the Belmont.

But, my focus is poker.  This is my summer.

The horses. Part Deux.

Went back to the track today.  It was crowded, but once we got through the turnstile it wasn't too bad.  Made another $21.  I'm the man.

By the way, I think I'll be posting more once my summer really begins next week.

The horses.

I love horses.  Because of my asshat friends, I feel immediately obligated to note that I love them in a platonic way.

I was playing poker yesterday.  Sidenote:  I'm not sure that tourney is post-worthy as I ran poorly and only played 3 hours.  I thought it would be no big deal to ask the host to flip the channel to the Preakness at 5:15 and watch the race.  Alas, there was a young girl there who was watching "Cars" on dvd, and hence no dice.  I did, however, watch a replay a few minutes ago.  Wow.  Of course, my appreciation was dampened by having a $100 win bet on Bodemeister.

Now we get another shot at a Triple Crown.  I'm excited.  I kinda hope he does it and I kinda hope he doesn't.  I mean, "I'll Have Another" doesn't have the majestic ring to it that "Affirmed" does.  But, maybe it's just me.  I'll probably bet Dullahan to ensure the Crown for the non-haters among you.

Today, a couple friends and I went out to Lone Star Park.  As noted on facebook, I made $9 betting the races.  I really enjoy going out there, and always promise myself to visit more often.  We had a ton of fun today.  We walked in with about 3 minutes to post in Race 1, quickly bet the 2 horse without seeing the field, and won.  Good start.  Throughout the rest of the day, I made some good bets and some bad bets.  I even won money on a gray horse, breaking a rule of mine.

If any of you are headed to LSP, let me know.  I'm planning to go back out next Monday and again on June 9 for the Belmont.

Beautiful

When I was in high school, I remember a conversation a friend of mine had.  Vaguely.  I don't remember who he was talking to, but the person was asking why football players took losing so hard.  My friend's explanation was quick, eloquent, and accurate.  He said, "because we give up our bodies for the game."  It rang true then, and it rings true now.  When I watch football, that's what it's about - even now.  Me, and my old man syndrome, remembering the passion of playing and reliving it through the players on the field.

I miss it.

Nowadays, I don't go to nearly as many high school games on Fridays as I used to.  Every year, I think about going to all the Tech games home and away, and I haven't been to any of them in a couple years.  I don't even go to Cowboys games.

I do have Mavericks season tickets, though.  I watch NBA basketball every night, watch replays online, watch multiple games at once, et cetera.  Why am I more attracted to this game than to football given the emotions I express above?  Because football is not beautiful.  Basketball is beautiful.  I'm watching the OKC/LAL game 4 right now.  I keep saying wow when Durant and Kobe make plays.  I watched this play about 20 times last night:



I'm ok if you disagree with me, but this is how I feel.  I love them both.  I miss playing football almost every day, despite it being 16 years since I last put on pads.  But, as a spectator, I choose basketball, and it's not really that close.

Driver

Watching the playoffs makes me really wish the Mavericks had a driver.  People can disparage JJ Barea all they want, but he provided that last year.  Players who can get to the rim are valuable.  The Mavs don't have that now.  Roddy B is supposed to be that, but it doesn't come naturally to him.

Westbrook, Rondo, James Harden, Tony Parker, Steve Nash, CP3, etc.  It's important.

It's the reason Linsanity happened.

It's not as hard to find as a big man, but it's not easy, either.  And the Mavs seem to have trouble getting/keeping one.  Michael Finley was supposed to do it, but he had no handle.  Nash did it (although he did it more in PHX), but we couldn't keep his old legs.  Devin Harris was supposed to do it, but he and Dirk didn't click.  We couldn't sign Lin and couldn't re-sign JJ.

Fans know they want Deron Williams, but I don't think many understand why.  This is why.  He may be a punk, but he can drive and get to the rim and open the court.

By the way, I had to watch Rondo's around the back dribble like four times tonight.  Awesome.

Sidekicks

In 1987, I was 11.  Who I am now was already largely in place somehow.  I loved rap music, Mike Tyson, and the Dallas Mavericks.  The real team I loved, however, was the Dallas Sidekicks.  And, somehow, miraculously, they won it all.  I got to meet Doc Lawson, Kevin Smith, and Krys Sobieski.  They were real, not just on TV.  The electricity of Reunion during games was amazing.  

I'm not a huge soccer fan now (unless we're in a World Cup year).  But, I was then. Now the Sidekicks are back.  They're going to be in the PASL starting in November.  Playing in the Allen Events Center near my work.  The San Diego Sockers are in the league, too.  I don't know if my tastes have changed too much to really enjoy the experience, but I intend to find out.  Holler at me if you want to catch a game.

Results oriented.

I understand rationally that the outcome shouldn't affect me.  If I can tell that I handicapped something well, or learn a lesson about how to handicap something better, or both, losing money shouldn't matter.  But, it does.  At least for now.

Last year at this time, I had crushed an NBA regular season and made money playing online poker leading up to Black Friday.  This year, I've lost on the NBA, and played meaningful poker only about once a month.  I'm down a little overall for the year.

I had both LA teams in their respective series.  They both went up 3-1, but I could already see the possibility of losing the next six games, and therefore both bets.  Prophecy on its way to being fulfilled going into last night.  Then, the Lakers win.  I feel better.  I do not feel nearly as confident about the Clips, but press my bet anyways to get a better average price if they can pull it off.  They do.  I feel better.

I've now got two bets outstanding.  The Lakers and Celtics to win it all.  I don't think either will happen, but would put more on both if given the same price, probably.

I think I'm going to chill and focus on poker for the summer.  Let's hope I play well enough that I won't care how I run.

UGH.

I have been looking over the free agent list.

Take a look and build a reasonable wish list...think you can contend even if that wish list is totally fulfilled?  I'm not so sure.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2012-nba-free-agents

Relief

I was pissed after every game in the series.  I don't think that OKC was significantly better than us.  But, jeez, it would be nice to have a player who got to the rim and finished like Durant, Westbrook, and Harden.  That's Roddy B's job, but he doesn't seem to get it.  Vince Carter far exceeded my expectations this year, and was the closest thing we had to that finisher that we needed.

Yes, I wish they had signed Tyson Chandler.  Tyson Chandler may be my favorite Maverick ever.  Strong words, I know.

But, we can't go back in time.  What will Donnie and Mark do now?  That's the question.  Can we get Deron?  And, if we do, what else can we get, knowing he alone is not enough?

Maybe I'll put my championship DVD on and forget about this for awhile.

btw, I think Dirk is going to have a tremendous season next year.

Mavs Game 4 and random thoughts.

I am hopeful about the game today, but not optimistic about this series.

It's been so easy to second guess the Mavs.  It's been easy to point back to what I said in December (first guessing).   Tyson Chandler just won Defensive Player of the Year.  I miss him.

That said, however, if the Mavs had held on to game 1 or 2, I'd still be feeling ok about this series, I think.

Anyways, too tough to think about too much.  I'm headed to the game in a minute.

Meanwhile...

I haven't looked at the Derby at all.  I'm recording it, and will enjoy watching it, but no money or emotions at stake.  I'm headed to LSP on Memorial Day if any of you want to join me.

I'm enjoying the NBA playoffs.  I'm looking forward to seeing the Lakers in the next round, I think Spurs vs. whoever wins this 4/5 matchup will be interesting.  Miami is rolling, and I'm not sure the Pacers can compete.  I think the Celtics can hang on, and beat CHI (or Philly), but they gotta have something left for Miami.  Good storylines, even if my enthusiasm is dampened by the Mavs.

I'm enjoying projecting the NFL season, but I haven't even really looked at college football yet.  I watched most of the Irish spring game, but it's not looking good.  Wazzu with Leach will be interesting.

The Red Sox are still struggling.  They'll go on a tear at some point.

Damn, the Clips are on a 14-1 run in this game.  Look good, obv.

Have a good weekend.  Talk to you soon.

Cat Daddy

Call me Spongebob.

Mavs Blues.

I got 'em.

I didn't watch any of the games tonight.  I had a charity tourney dealing gig.  But, to be honest, I didn't miss the games much.  My basketball energy is down right now.  I think I'll be pumped up again by Thursday.  I hope so.

The Celtics winning without Rondo or Allen was predictable.  The Lakers win was predictable.  The Bulls rolling without DRose was predictable.  Wait, what?  The Bulls lost.  Color me shocked.  I really thought they would roll tonight.  I still think they win the series, but good for Philly for showing up.

Clippers' Comeback

Went to the Ranger game last night.  Good times.  Except, I put a little money on the Rangers and they lost.  In fact, I did poorly overall yesterday, winning only my Laker bet (I was on the Flyers, too, but parlayed them with Nashville).

Except, wait a minute.  I wake up this morning to find out I should have double checked that Clipper/Grizzly score when I got home (it was 82-55 Memphis last I checked).  Apparently, the LAC went on a 26-1 run to pull ahead and then held off Memphis for the win.  Wow.  That evened things up for the day for me and helps long-term as I'm on the LAC for the upset in the series.

I'm not a surprise guy, but if I'm going to be surprised, I prefer good ones.  This qualifies.

I'm not betting anything today.  I'm focusing all my energy on a Mavs win.  Hopefully, that one will end in my favor as well.

NBA Odds

NBA Futures (and any futures for that matter) are dumb.  Whatever event you're betting on would have to be played between 3 and 46 times in order for the odds to be right (0 EV given betting on all teams).  Basically, I'm saying the vig is ridiculous.  Add in that in most cases you're giving up your ability to use your bankroll and/or giving the house an interest free loan, and my advice is to avoid them.

But, why does Fatty McGee take the stairs?  "They're fun!"

First, let's trim the fat.  There are six teams that I think have a "realistic" chance of winning it all on this day.  The Bulls, Celtics, Heat, Spurs, Thunder, and Lakers can make a case.  Yes, all teams are flawed, and all teams can overcome those flaws.  It's hard for me to eliminate the  Knicks, Griz, Clips, Jazz, and even the Mavs.  And, if you really believe one of those teams has a chance, you'll get better odds (closer to true odds).

It's almost impossible to run the chances without a program to calculate everything.  But, I've approximated it to the best of my abilities.  For the six teams above, I need BETTER than 2/1 on the Heat, 3/1 on the Thunder, 4/1 on the Bulls, 7/1 on the Spurs, 8/1 on the Lakers, and 12/1 on the Celtics.  And, of course, when I look up the odds, I'm only getting a better price on Boston and LA.  I'm also getting better than I expect on the Magic, 76ers, Hawks, Jazz, Mavs, Clips, and Griz.  Which shows me that I'm overestimating the chances of the dogs.  Makes sense.  The favorites are ridiculously bad prices, which also makes sense.   Ok, recalculate.  ARGH.  I give up.  Just don't bet futures.

It's funny that this advice is so clear, because one year ago yesterday (schedule-wise, not on the calendar since it was Black Friday).  I made my biggest bet ever.  I flew out to Vegas for less than 24 hours to make it.  The closest I've ever gotten to baller status.  I knew that even at the short odds they were giving me, the Lakers were a ridiculously good bet to win it all.  I still think so, for all the reasons that the Mavs won it all.  Unfortunately, I didn't know that Kobe was being a bigger bitch than even and ruining PJ's last run with his bitchmate Pau.  Yes, I'm bitter, although I did hedge with the Mavs and Thunder and the Mavs winning it all was by far my best sports moment ever.

Ok, for nostalgia's sake, I put a little on the Mavs, Lakers, and Celtics.  I'll ride one of the favorites heavy later and try to make some money on the individual games/series in the meantime.

Good luck.

NFL Draft R1

Watching free Game 7 hockey.  Go Panthers.

Random thoughts....

I like Andrew Luck.  Obvious 1st pick.  I don’t like the draft hats this year.  A few years ago, when Crabtree slipped to the 49ers, I bought the 49er draft hat.  I always buy the NCAA bball champ hat, so I started a new (albeit ridiculously unnecessary) tradition of getting a draft hat.  Year 2 was the Cowboys with Dez (maybe it’ll be best WR), then the Lions last year (nope, just best 1st pick - loved pairing Fairley with Suh).  I’ll let you know when I know about this year, but just know now that I’m disappointed with the 5950.

I like RG3 and Trent Richardson.  Nothing controversial yet.  Maybe giving up 3 picks to move up, but whatever.  A 4th, 5th, and 7th isn’t nothing, but I am always a sucker for getting your guy.

Great job by Vikes to pick up 3 picks and still get their guy.  Matt Kalil.  I would love to see coach’s tape.  There is definitely a market for coach’s tape, and yet the NFL has no interest in making it available.  It’s a shame.  

I really like Blackmon.  Given the right situation, I could see him being a Pro Bowler next year.  I’m not sure, unfortunately, if Jax is that situation.  Giving up a 4th hurts, but see above about my being a sucker.

Morris Claiborne to the Cowboys.  1st real surprise of the draft for me.  Not surprised they moved, but moved that much.  btw, I think this is great.  Honey Badger got the hype, but I have heard repeatedly that this guy was the best CB on that team.

Looking at the other side of the trade, how about the Rams?  Blackmon goes off the board, so they find someone to pay and move back.  They pick up the 45th pick and could still get the 2nd best WR in the draft (Michael Floyd).  They gotta sweat for a bit, but could work out nicely.  Of course, they could be targeting someone else entirely.  To recap, the Rams have turned the 2nd pick into the 14th, 2 additional twos this year and an additional 1 next year.  Have to love the ability to build there.

I don’t like taking a safety at 7, unless it’s Ed Reed.  Barron is not Ed Reed.  I will probably never know, but I think it’s a reasonable guess to think that TB traded back thinking they could get Claiborne.  Seems stupid in a 6 person draft that someone wouldn’t trade up to 6.  So, maybe it’s not reasonable or maybe TB is stupid.  Either way, I hope Barron works out because I like Schiano.  

Tannehill to Miami.  Seems like a nice kid, but I think Billick got it right a couple weeks ago when he talked about Tannehill being this year’s JaMarcus Russell.  NOT from a personality standpoint.  I’m sure Tannehill will work.  But, when teams draft because they need a position or hype instead of taking a player whose talents match up with a slot’s value, problems arise.  Huge upside.  But, he’s an Aggie, so I don’t think he’s going to make it in this league.  Boom.

I think you build with OL.  But, I also think a team needs at least one stud LB to be a great team.  From everything I’ve heard Kuechly is a STUD.  So, good for CAR getting him at 9.  The picks are flying.  We’re already through 9 picks (about 20 minutes ahead of my timetable).  Nice.  We might be done by 11.

Yep, Bills took about 3 minutes to get their card in for Gilmore.  Nice pace.  I really expected Riley Reiff there.  I heard today that he’s a better prospect than Bulaga, which surprised me.  He could slip now, because I think many planned for him to be gone.

Dontari Poe may end up being a dominant DL in the NFL, but I think if you as an NFL GM simply went by the rule that if college production were mentioned on weaknesses on a report, you wouldn’t select that guy then you’d be off to a good start.  That can’t all be one sentence.

By the way, I don’t get the trend to go to a 3-4 in the NFL.  

The trade for 7 from 5 for TB looks bad.  Yes, it’s an earlier 4th, but both the trade from 3 to 4 and 12 to 15 netted more.  And, if they lost their dude, it hurts worse.

PHI traded up from 15 to 12 to get Fletcher Cox.  Since they were rumored to possible to be trading up from 15 to 7 to get Fletcher Cox, this has to be a win.  btw, I think if I’m an owner, I think about hiring Andy Reid in some capacity when he’s done coaching.

Heather Graham is amazing.

I saw some mocks where ARI took Michael Floyd.  I saw that LFitz supposedly was lobbying for him.  I love him.  I love the situation.  I’m surprised (like Gruden, apparently) that ARI didn’t go D or OL (though I’d heard they loved Glenn, not Reiff).  It’ll now be even more interesting to see what STL does at 14.  

Ok, despite missing out on Floyd, I like STL’s deals.  They need a bunch.  Brockers is the pick. Ok.  Plug up the middle.

Mike Mayock knows football.  Almost every time he speaks, he makes sense to me.  And, he loves Chandler Jones, so I like Chandler Jones.

I said earlier that I’m a sucker for getting your guy.  But, really?  Take a guy you could get tomorrow at 15?  Bruce Irvin.  Dumb.  Ridiculously dumb.  

Here we go again.  Effort questions.  Motor.  Not good for a DE.  Quinton Coples.  And, bullshit on Gruden saying that Rex Ryan can push the right buttons.  He pushes a button, and if it works, great.  But, it doesn’t work for everyone and I don’t see it working for Coples.  

CIN should pick OL/DB or DB/OL.  Will they?  Ok, halfway there.  Dre Kirkpatrick.  I like it.  I like it a lot.  Will Zimmer stay in CIN?  Because I think it’s a good fit if so.  OL at 21?

I know Gruden likes everyone.  I have complained about how Gruden likes everyone.  But, I’m still sold on Melvin Ingram.  Maybe because I want Rivers and Turner to have a good D so they can contend.  

I like players from Boise State.  If I’m a GM, yes, I’m looking for college production.  Part of that is motor/work.  But, good coaching obviously helps.  Playing for Art Briles is going to mean you are in a better position to produce than if you play for Tuberville.  ps Guns up!

Kendall Wright to TEN.  Meh.  Could be good.  Could be not good.  Definitive meh.

The Chandler Jones watch didn’t take long.  NEP trade up and get him.  Good for them.  They gave up a 3rd, but if Jones is what Mayock says he is, no problem there, obv.  Will have to wait 6 more to see if CIN goes OL with 2nd pick.

As evidenced by my post the other day, I’m cool on Weeden.  I’m fcold on him to CLE.  Worst possible pick by CLE.  Colt McCoy deserves another chance, unless you can get a clear cut top tier dude.  Weeden is NOT a clear cut top tier dude.  Tell me right now who starts next year.  You can’t.  That’s dumb.  Sidenote:  Colt is three years younger.

Now, Riley Reiff comes off the board.  Great value, obviously.  He is NOT a LT, but can be a good RT or really good G.

Pace still flying.  PIT gets DeCastro.  Another great value.  Prolly my favorite OL in the draft.  And, I love that he’s going to a team that isn’t going to make him a C.  Will be a Pro Bowl G.  Exaggerate much?

Wow. NE trades up again.  Get Dont’a Hightower.  I love it.  Jones and Hightower.  Man, I’m turning into Gruden, loving everyone.  Or hating.  Or meh.  Fun.  I love the draft.  And, ps, I love my wife.  Pats give up a 3rd and 4th to move from 27 to 21 and 31 to 25.  No problem.  btw, they picked up Brandon Lloyd, Anthony Gonzalez, and Donte’ Stallworth in Free Agency (and Robert Gallery).

Speaking of FA, there are still some good players out there.  Seems like more than usual.  That would make a good post.  I probably won’t get around to doing it justice, but I’ll add it to the list.

Awesome 1st round for CIN.  OL and DB.  Value AND needs.  That’s how you do.

Ridiculously fast.  At 6:30, I thought closer to 11 than 12.  But, now, we may sneak in before 10.  Wow.  

Vikes overpaid to get back up into 1st.  To get Harrison Smith, who isn’t all that.  I like him, but wouldn’t defend this without loving him.  From the conversation, it sounds like “need” popping up again.

A.J. Jenkins.  I woulda preferred Randle.  I probably woulda preferred Hill.  And Jeffery.  In my tweet, I mentioned that you gotta trust Harbaugh.  But, I change my mind.  I am not a big fan of Baalke, and don’t see any reason to trust Harbaugh.  One (1) catch by a WR in the NFC Championship.  

DEN trading back.  I like it.  Let other teams fall in love.  TB takes Martin from Boise.  I just said I like Boise players, and Martin is an example of that.  He “does it all.”  He’s not as explosive as some others, but is “complete.”  I don’t like TB’s draft, which means Barron and Martin are gonna run the world.  Price is only switching 4ths, so not a huge deal.

The Giants make their pick at 10:04 on my clock.  Pretty amazing.  They take David Wilson, who I like more than Martin.  I don’t understand why LaMichael James is not rated higher.  We’ll see tomorrow.  Only 3 hours.  Cya.

Foul Ball.

Yes, it's different when it's flipped into the stands than if it's a foul ball.  But, two things:
1. If I ever catch a foul ball, I'm keeping it.
2. I don't think these people were the evil, rubbing it in the kid's face people they were made out to be.

Game 7 and random thoughts.

I agree that there's nothing like an NHL Game 7. Well, over the next couple of nights, we get three of them. Not to mention the Mavs' regular season finale and the NFL Draft. Good times.

The Ovechkins play at the Bruins tomorrow night. I'll take Boston. obv.
Ottawa plays at the Rangers and the Devils play at Florida. I'll take both home teams there, too.

I think the current heat over Barron helps the Cowboys. Yes, if he's Ed Reed, you take him there. But, I remember Ed Reed from the U. I don't remember Barron from watching 'Bama the last couple of years.

With the Mavs likely to have to play either OKC then LAL or LAL then OKC (no, I don't think Denver can upset either), I'm not sure which I'd prefer. I just hope James Harden makes a full recovery (in July) and Pau and Kobe get in a big chic fight soon.

I really wish the Stars were contenders again. I'm surprised PHX isn't playing better right now (early 3Q). I hope they come back. Yes, Utah could probably push SAS more, but I just think it'd be cool to see such a horrible team in the playoffs.

I will not make any NBA futures bets next week. I will not make any NBA futures bets next week. I will not make any NBA futures bets next week. Ok. I might.

I don't understand the Browns NOT taking Trent Richardson at 4. They have to take Trent Richardson. And, btw, they really should give Colt McCoy another year without bringing in his replacement yet.

I hope BOTH Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd are great NFL WR. Michael Floyd actually impressed me more two years ago than he did last year, but given good coaching and with drive, he'll be great. I can't really see Blackmon failing, either, but I keep hearing people doubt both.

I'm tired of the "Yu" jokes. He's doing awesome, btw. While we're on the Rangers, I'll mention that I thought it was cool that Pudge threw the first "pitch" last night from home to 2nd. I liked Tony Pena, really liked Benito Santiago, but loved Pudge back in the day.

For stupidity's sake, I'll mention that I have have positive vibes on Stephen Hill and Chandler Jones.

Ok, later.

It's Draft Week

I mentioned that I wouldn't pick up Brandon Weeden where he's available this week. To be honest, I really like Andrew Luck. I waver on RG3, but can't argue with him being picked #2. The next QB I'd consider (again, where he's rated) is Russell Wilson. I think he'll be good if given a chance. The other QB that intrigues me is Chandler Harnish.

I'd love to be able to write a full mock and/or analyze the draft more completely. But, like most things, I'm just not going to make enough time. We'll see if I can put something together before Thursday. In any case, I'm excited. And, if nothing else, I'll be tweeting while I watch.

Klay Thompson and Brandon Weeden

I saw the Mavs beat the Warriors last night. I was impressed again by Klay Thompson. Which is weird. I saw him play a couple times at Wazzu without being impressed. He's passable but not great at defense. Same with his passing. His handle is probably below average. He's not tall (listed at 6'7"). But, jeez, he can play for me. Pretty shot, and can get it off so quickly. I don't remember noting such a quick release.

Normally, I don't even use that phrase for bball players. It's more of a QB thing.

Brandon Weeden has a pretty quick release. He is very accurate in the pocket. He's the kind of QB I would normally like. But, I don't. I think he's Tim Couch. I think he's going to fail. I would not draft him until about round 4.

This is what I do. I'm constantly in sports talk radio mode, grading players. It must be what millions of other sports fans do, too. Because I've always done it. Because fantasy sports couldn't be the megaindustry it is without us doing it. I'm saying we did it before fantasy sports and someone figured out a way to profit from us.

I even do it at high school games.

Why? Why do I feel the need to judge each player relative to every player in my mental rolodex? Why do I judge their performance against my mental projection of their ceiling based on my perceived understanding of their abilities?

I guess I just don't know. Fawesome, Jim. Ask a cool question and don't answer it well. I think that it's just part of me. That if you knew the answer, you'd understand why I love sports so much when it has no bearing on my 'real' life. I'm enthralled by the competition and conflict, whether that be team vs. team or man vs. himself.

I'm going to big concert tomorrow. I'm not that psyched. Yet I spend a couple hours a week watching recorded amateur singers on 'The Voice.' So, clearly this obsession with judgment bleeds past sports. And, again, I must not be alone, for reality TV as we now know it has gotten huge not just on voyeurism but on competition and analysis.

Wondering begets wondering.

Just know that you shouldn't pick up Weeden, even in your dynasty league.

Home game.

Played in the home game tourney series again. Cashed and am now 4/4 cashing this year and lead in points. Very lucky to survive KK>AA aipf early (sorry, Rob).

I feel like I played very well. Made some good bluffs, good laydowns, got value, etc. But, I really just wanted to talk about one hand.

Almost the first break. I'm sitting on around 30k at 200/400. I look down at J7cc. Easy fold a majority of the time, but a good spot. I make it 1200 EP. Two calls, sb jams for 6600. So, it's 5400 to win 10400 to me. I could fold, but if it's HU it's probably a call. I feel like I'm getting the right price against his range. So, for 20% of my stack in a good spot (knock a player out, gamble for big chiplead, image, etc.). The problem is I can't call and play an empty side with this hand. I think it through, and decide neither of the others can reasonably have calling hands against my jam after just calling my initial raise. I jam. He has AKo and wins.

Both he and another player at the table guffaw (repeatedly through break and after) at my gift. Nice guys, but I think wrong here. I fight my ego and don't correct them, but feel like in general they shouldn't really critique a play as bad just because they don't understand it. Yep, horrible play and horrible ego. I'll just keep working.

Title Contenders

I don't know who's going to win the NBA this year. I can see Memphis winning it. OKC. LAC. Miami should win it. CHI possible if DRose gets right. BOS looks possible, which seems crazy. SAS. LAL. I don't know, and I like it.

Killer Instinct

I remember when Van Exel said eff 'em. He was talking about the Kings, back in '03 (pretty sure, not fact checking). We beat them. The trio of Dirk, Nash, and Finley wasn't enough. They needed that eff 'em. We ended up losing to the Spurs in the conference finals (getting outscored like 39-13 in the 4Q of game 6, while Walt Williams's socks just couldn't get it done - loudest game I had been at in the AAC until Lakers last year).

2006 we didn't have it. Devin, Josh, Dirk lost to the Heat, who had it.

Last year, finally, we had it. Chandler, DeShawn, and even JJ. We weren't going to lose. Dirk proved the critics wrong. You can obviously win a title with Dirk as your best player.

But, I don't think you can do it with Dirk as your leader.

Tonight, the result of the game was never really in question. But, a great team runs SAC off the floor in the first quarter and kicks their asses as they run away. Not tonight.

2011 will carry me for a long time. Best sports time of my life. But, it's still frustrating seeing this. Things can change quickly, but I'm not holding my breath this year.

Too long (again).

I have to somehow make writing a habit. Just like eating right. Just like working out. Just like getting stuff done at work. Just like putting my due diligence in for basketball. Just like playing poker.

Somebody once said that excellence is a habit. I'm a believer. It's something I preach to my students. But, then I act hypocritically. I procrastinate and take shortcuts, knowing that I can get by with less than my best.

blahblahblah

This week, I'm busy. I've got a Rangers game tomorrow, a Mavs game on Wednesday, and am planning to hit up Lone Star Park on Opening Night on Thursday. So, here's an opportunity to put up instead of talking.

I will eat right the next five days.
I will get some sort of exercise each day the next five days.
I will make an entry here each of the next five days.
I will do my best at work the next five days.
I will read a few pages of poker content each day for the next five days.
I will enjoy my three outings.
It's gonna be a good week.
I will post an update here on Saturday before I go play poker.

I love poker.

That title was my status update on facebook a little after 6am Saturday morning. Considering that I went to the midnight show of "Hunger Games" the night before and worked a full day, I wouldn't have expected to be up playing so late. But, I love poker.

I had beer and cigarettes for the first time in 2012. I had a friend in town and other friends over. We played a sng and I won. Then, we played .25/.50. Went up a decent amount, then was down 120, ended up 12. Most fun I've had in awhile.

NFL Draft - Early Notes

We're about a month out from the draft. Like with seemingly everything else other than work and the NBA, I don't seem to have spent as much time this year on the draft. Here's a few random thoughts:

-I like Brandon Weeden. I think he could be this year's Andy Dalton. He's very accurate and he's smart. He's not as athletic as Luck or Griffin, but I think he can succeed in the right situation. Unfortunately for him, I'm not sure if that situation is out there for him.

-Stephen Hill intrigues me. Usually, I love the combine but try to ignore most of the happenings there. I prefer to go off of what I've seen on the field. I don't remember him ever standing out when I watched GT last year. I'm sure he did, but I focus so much on their running game when I watch them. We'll see.

-I'm very interested in the Rams' draft. I'd like to see them be successful for whatever reason. Last year was a disappointment. Who will they get here and in the next couple years? I'm down to find out. Someone remind me in 2015 to write a post evaluating the Luck deal.

-I like looking for the next RB who people are underrating. I'll see a guy in college and just think that he'll be a good pro. Then, come draft time he'll be downgraded for some reason. The two examples that stand out in my mind are: (a) Earnest Graham, who finally did do well when he got a real chance, and (b) Ryan Mathews who flew up draft boards and hasn't lived up to expectations yet. This year, I think Bernard Pierce has a chance to be effective, but I'm not sure he has the explosiveness. Obviously, Trent Richardson is a beast physically. The guy, however, that I think is currently being underrated is LaMichael James out of Oregon. It probably says something about me being a square that I'm picking a guy who was a Heisman frontrunner going into the year, but so be it.

-I hope Michael Floyd lives up to his potential.

-I was not alone last year in saying that Morris Claiborne was the better CB over the honey badger. That's reflected in Claiborne being a probable top 5 pick. We'll have to see if Mathieu can continue his defensive play, his highlight returns, and stay healthy.

-Not one front seven D player I feel compelled to comment on. Hmmm.

Ok, cya.

Peytonsanity!

I think I may have to cheer for the Broncos next year. For real.

That is all.

Trade Deadline

Well, I wrote about the Wizards less than 24 hours ago. Today, they've traded two pieces and gotten a big one back.

There are all kinds of platitudes you hear about trade evaluation, but one common one is that whoever got the best player got the best of the trade. If that's true, the Wizards won this deal. They give up McGee and Young and get Nene. Nene is not "a real dude" like I mentioned the Wiz needing, but he's closer than I thought they could get. I think he'll help on both ends if he can stay on the court.

Denver gets McGee, who should benefit from playing for Karl. He seems to be a fit in that system, because he can run. I just wonder if Karl is overestimating his ability to teach McGee basketball. I also wonder why they were so quick to jettison Nene after re-signing him in the offseason. Maybe they're coming around to Cuban's point of view that assets will be valued differently in the next couple of years, and wanted some flexibility.

The Clippers, however, is the team that I think "wins" this deal, even though they were used mostly just to make it work as an afterthought. I mentioned in my post that Nick Young has the enviable skill of being able to create his own shot. He can make space. The Clips have needed that skill since including Gordon in the CP deal. Apparently, Young is going home as well. If only VDN wasn't there, I would think this move would make them a contender.

In other trades, I don't see much that matters this year. The Rockets and Lakers both make a couple moves, but I'm not sure either will be able to put enough together in the playoffs.

Let me know your thoughts.